Feasable visitors

"350.000 visitors, that's what we expect."

Determining the number of visitors is essential for a museum, attraction, sauna complex, indoor play paradise or theater in the business case and the associated operation. The possible number of visitors is often calculated in a so-called feasibility study. High numbers are regularly included in plans for a new attraction, experience of museum.

How realistic is a certain number of visitors?

What factors influence feasibility?

Top 50 attracts at least 300,000 visitors
The top 50 most visited destinations in Holland all attract more than 300,000 visitors*. This may make it seem easy to attract that many visitors. However, the list already provides insight into a number of factors that influence the attractiveness and therefore visitor numbers. For example, 32% of the biggest attractions are in Amsterdam and almost 50% in one of the four major cities. In terms of type of facility, 20% are zoos. Of the facilities that are the biggest international attractions, an average of 80% come from foreign visitors.

Many different factors influence the appeal of a leisure facility and therefore the potential visitor numbers: from location and accessibility, to competition and the concept, each element contributes to the complex interplay of factors that make determining visitor numbers so challenging, but at the same time makes it essential. Below is a brief explanation for each factor with examples to clarify it.

Mauritshuis

Location, location, location
A frequently heard statement is that it's all about the location. It is not the only factor, but it is an important one. The location has a direct relationship with the catchment area, competitive environment, accessibility and authenticity. These components are discussed one by one below.

Catchment area
To estimate the number of visitors, the first factor is the catchment area, or the number of residents and tourists within a certain travel distance to the location. The catchment area has the following components:

  • Willingness to travel: willingness to travel differs per type of facility. A Monkeytown has a smaller catchment area than an amusement park, visitors are willing to travel further/longer for the amusement park. As a result, there can sometimes be several indoor playgrounds in the same region, but only 1 amusement park.
  • A minimum number of residents and tourists is then required within this catchment area. After all, if only 50,000 people live in that radius with a willingness to travel of 30 minutes, it is very difficult to attract enough visitors. At the same time, in Amsterdam you immediately have several million potential visitors within 30 minutes, due to the high population density and large number of tourists staying there.
  • Thirdly, the composition of this catchment area has an influence: are there many seniors living there or families with young children? Do many tourists come and if so, when? Attractions in the beach resort of the Hague are highly dependent on tourists who during holidays, while other facilities might attract more residents.
  • Finally, a so-called penetration rate applies per type of facility: what percentage of residents/tourists can be attracted to the catchment area on average. International benchmark figures are available for this, but it is also strongly related to the aspects below.

Competition
A second aspect that is partly determined by the location is the extent to which there is already competition in the region. Starting an aquarium in The Hague is not convenient, as there is already a Sea Life. Or a wellnesscomplex near another one. At the same time, competition does not have to be negative, this depends on the type of facility: sometimes existing offerings in the neighborhood can be complementary to each other and together have a greater appeal, comparable to the car or furniture boulevard, where there are several brands that complement each other. For this reason, more and more so-called family entertainment centers have emerged in recent years with a mix of bowling, laser gaming, karting, supported by food and drinks. The aforementioned Sea Life therefore likes to be located next to the Legoland Discovery Center. Both aimed at families with children, but complementary in terms of content. And the Museum Quarter The Hague profiles itself as a cultural hotspot, because it houses both the old masters and new modern art, supplemented with theaters and galleries.

Legoland Discovery CentreConcept
The concept of leisure plays a crucial role. Whether it concerns a unique theme, innovative attractions or a specific target group, the concept largely determines the appeal. This even applies within a certain type of facility. An example is the world of escape rooms: some attract fewer than 5,000 visitors per year, because the design is simple and the location is small. Sherlocked in Amsterdam attracts many visitors, partly thanks to the spectacular theming and storytelling. The Prison Escape Game has even combined the concept of an escape room with a theater show, allowing hundreds of visitors to participate in this real life game!
A diversification can also be seen in the wellness sector: a new wellnesscomplex in Holland wants to distinguish itself by being the first 5* complex. This has a strong influence on the number of potential visitors.
In some cases, things have actually gone wrong with (among other things) the concept. Wildlands is an example of a high ambition to be an innovative zoo, but the visitor numbers were very disappointing. Also the 'amusement park of the future' Yumble (22 million investment) had to close after 4 months, while they expected 300,000 visitors.

Authenticity and unique collection
The authenticity of the location certainly also influences visitor numbers. This importance has increased significantly in recent years, because visitors attach more value to it. A historic site with a rich culture and heritage can exert a magnetic pull on visitors looking for a unique experience. For example, the Museum Oranjehotel has been open since 2019 and attracts relatively many German young people. Research showed the authentic and real location to be an important determining factor in the choice to come. But also consider the Anne Frank House, Kasteel de Haar, the Heineken Experience or the Van Gogh House as unique locations.
In addition to history, the collection obviously also plays a major role, most clearly in the museum world. The Rijks and Mauritshuis obviously score high in visitor numbers, because they have unique works that cannot be seen anywhere else in the world. Or the National Military Museum, which displays an impressive collection.

Accessibility
Whether and how a leisure facility can be reached by foot, bicycle, car or public transport also influences its potential to attract visitors. Good public transport connections and sufficient parking can lower the threshold for visitors. The easier it is for visitors to get there, the greater the chance of actually getting these visitors in. For that reason, major attractions such as Madame Tussauds like to be located in places with an already large existing flow of visitors, such as Dam Square in Amsterdam. Other facilities require good accessibility by car, for example a large amusement park such as Puy du Fou or a sauna complex.

Visit frequency
Looking back at the top 50, we often see zoos in the list. This shows the next factor that influences the number of visitors that can be achieved: what is the average visit frequency per year for the facilities? A large amusement park such as Walibi or the Efteling is usually only visited once a year or sometimes even once every five years. A zoo, museum or cinema has a much higher visit frequency. In many cases, this frequency is linked to the catchment area: the closer someone lives, the greater the chance that they will come several times a year. Ultimately, this concerns the number of visits.

Price
Of course, the price also plays a crucial role. In general, the higher the price, the lower the appeal. However, this is strongly related to the concept mentioned earlier: special new concepts such as Fabrique de Lumière in Amsterdam and Remastered in Rotterdam can charge a higher price than, for example, a cinema. But there is also price variation at a cinema: an IMAX film has a different price than ScreenX or Relax Seats. In addition to the concept, the price is also related to the duration of the visit. Consider the Efteling, for example: you can spend a whole day here, making a higher price logical and accepted. Finally, the use of subscriptions and annual passes also influences visitor numbers: each visit with a museum annual pass yields a small contribution to the museum, while an annual subscription at Slagharen is a one-off income for unlimited access, so each additional visit does not incur any entrance fees.

Fabrique de LumieresTemporality and innovation
If a leisure facility is entirely temporary, such as the Keukenhof, or partly through temporary exhibitions and events, this also contributes to increasing visitor numbers. Urgency is created, an extra reason to come, that motivates visitors to visit now, otherwise it will no longer be there. Precisely for this reason, in recent years more and more attention has been paid to events in existing leisure facilities, such as the Light Nights in Ouwehands Dierenpark. In addition to temporary events, it is also crucial to continue to renew a facility, so the experience not only stays up to date, but also provides a new reason to visit. Consider, for example, the penguins in Sea Life, pandas in a zoo or a new attraction at an amusementpark. This temporary or permanent innovation is often included in the business case.

Operator
The role of the operator is often underestimated in the feasibility of visitor numbers. While the organization that actually opens the doors and receives the guests ultimately has the most influence on the visitor experience, marketing, hiring staff, controlling costs, etc. The more professional and experienced that party is, the greater the success of the facility. This sounds logical, but is often not or insufficiently taken into account in feasibility studies. A party like Merlin Entertainments is very professional in managing attractions such as the Dungeons, Madame Tussauds and Legoland. The fact that setting up and running an attraction is not easy is also evident from recent examples that have gone bankrupt. Floriworld had to close its doors after just 2 years.

Floriworld

Awareness and marketing
Marketing is a logical factor that influences the number of visitors that can be achieved: if no one knows about it, they will not visit the location. Major players are able to create economies of scale in the field of marketing, both in terms of purchasing and cross-marketing. Plopsaland can make interesting combinations with Plopsa Indoor or the Plopsapark. But how long a facility has existed also contributes greatly to the development of visitors: every year the facility becomes better known. For example, Madurodam has a brand awareness of 97% in the Netherlands and everyone probably knows the Efteling. But they have been around for 70 years.

Climate
It may not be obvious, but one of the feasibility studies of a concept/operator also included climate as a factor that influences visitor numbers. This is not surprising: if it concerns an indoor location, a colder or wetter climate can have a positive influence on visitor numbers. Or the other way around: the better the weather, the sooner people want to be outside instead of inside. A factor to include in the calculation.

In short
Accurately determining visitor numbers requires a holistic approach, taking into account all the factors above. Only when all these factors are properly taken into account can a realistic number of visitors be estimated. And getting into the top 50 most visited destinations is not that easy. More than 300,000 visitors is impressive and special.


*Numbres of 2019, pre-COVID. Results of 2022 have been published.
29.11.2023